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2020 Presidential Election Projections


American Politics


A look into possible outcomes of the 2020 Presidential race.
Below are early projections for the outcome of the United States Presidential election of 2020 utilizing data from presidential elections since 1960. The following projection assumes no 'Faithless Electors' and not third party candidates.


Model #9 (10/06/2020)
Model #8 (09/02/2020)
Model #7 (08/12/2020)
Model #6 (07/23/2020)
Model #5 (06/04/2020)
Model #4 (03/11/2020)
Model #3 (09/26/2019)
Winner's ribbon image graphic
Photograph of Presidend Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Republican

Occupation: Business
Running Mate: Mike Pence
Carried Home State: TBD
Incumbent Status: Yes
164
Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
21 of 50 states carried (42%)


TBD
Popular Vote (TBD%)
374
Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
29 of 50 states carried (58%) (+D.C.)


TBD
Popular Vote (TBD%)
Winner's ribbon image graphic
Photograph of politician Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Democrat

Occupation: Politics
Running Mate: Kamala Harris
Carried Home State: TBD
Incumbent Status: No
ELECTORAL MAP:


October 2020 Projection of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections electoral map


STATE EC VOTES (538 TOTAL):
* Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not follow the 'winner-take-all' rule regarding their Electoral Votes per candidate. This allows for a more proportional division of the claimed Electoral Votes. States with a historically high number of Electoral Votes are shown in YELLOW below. Any third party candidate wins (if applicable) are represented in ORANGE.
164
374
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (11)
Arkansas (6)
California (55)
Colorado (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Hawaii (4)
Idaho (4)
Illinois (20)
Indiana (11)
Iowa (6)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Maine (4)*
Maine (0)*
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)*
Nebraska (0)*
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Ohio (18)
Oklahoma (7)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Rhode Island (4)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)
Washington (12)
West Virginia (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Wyoming (3)
Dictrict of Colombia (3)