2020 Presidential Election (Projection)

A by-the-numbers approach determining the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Notes:
Our 2020 projection results correctly predicted a Joe Biden (D) victory though not at the larger margin actually witnessed. Our formula also correctly predicted a Democrat victory in the battleground states of Georgia (16) and Wisconsin (10) - 26 total EVs - but gave Arizona (11), Michigan (16), and Pennsylvania (20) to challenger Donald Trump (R) for 47 total EVs. It did correctly predict Trump taking Iowa (6), Ohio (18), and Florida (29) for 53 total EVs.

The formula failed on just four states in all: Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania but these accounted for 62 total EVs which is considerable. Of note is that all of these states witnessed very close finishes.

Our popular vote count estimates were fairly close at 78,374,460 (D) to 71,359,384 (R) with actual totals being 81,282,903 (D) and 74,223,030 (R), respectively - a difference of just 2,908,443 (D) votes and 2,863,646 (R), respectively (and 5,772,089 total).

In our projection, Trump scored better in the Favorability Index with a rating of 254.4 (though noticeably less than 2016's rating of 347.3) to Biden's lower 232.0. The actual ratings based on the real-world election results were closer at 247.8 and 242.1, respectively - Trump still managing to beat out challenger Biden.

ELECTORAL BREAKDOWN (538 TOTAL):

* Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not follow the 'winner-take-all' rule regarding their Electoral Votes per candidate. This allows for a more proportional division of the claimed Electoral Votes.

274

264

✓ Alabama (9)

Projected: (D) 793,314 | 1,430,163 (R)

Actual: (D) 849,624 | 1,441,170 (R)

✓ Alaska (3)

Projected: (D) 126,314 | 175,152 (R)

Actual: (D) 153,778 | 189,951 (R)

✖ Arizona (11)

Projected: (D) 1,734,026 | 1,753,686 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,672,143 | 1,661,686 (R)

✓ Arkansas (6)

Projected: (D) 425,126 | 822,644 (R)

Actual: (D) 423,932 | 760,647 (R)

✓ California (55)

Projected: (D) 10,926,062 | 4,968,131 (R)

Actual: (D) 11,110,250 | 6,006,429 (R)

✓ Colorado (9)

Projected: (D) 1,891,056 | 1,360,870 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,804,352 | 1,364,607 (R)

✓ Connecticut (7)

Projected: (D) 969,913 | 703,391 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,080,860 | 715,291 (R)

✓ Delaware (3)

Projected: (D) 257,262 | 190,406 (R)

Actual: (D) 296,268 | 200,603 (R)

✓ Florida (29)

Projected: (D) 5,369,458 | 5,672,445 (R)

Actual: (D) 5,297,045 | 5,668,731 (R)

✓ Georgia (16)

Projected: (D) 2,586,089 | 2,537,410 (R)

Actual: (D) 2,474,507 | 2,461,837 (R)

✓ Hawaii (4)

Projected: (D) 316,306 | 209,513 (R)

Actual: (D) 366,130 | 196,864 (R)

✓ Idaho (4)

Projected: (D) 231,496 | 446,749 (R)

Actual: (D) 287,031 | 554,119 (R)

✓ Illinois (20)

Projected: (D) 3,146,451 | 2,419,132 (R)

Actual: (D) 3,471,915 | 2,446,891 (R)

✓ Indiana (11)

Projected: (D) 1,199,863 | 1,680,737 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,242,413 | 1,729,516 (R)

✓ Iowa (6)

Projected: (D) 765,876 | 874,469 (R)

Actual: (D) 759,061 | 897,672 (R)

✓ Kansas (6)

Projected: (D) 483,206 | 703,346 (R)

Actual: (D) 551,144 | 752,903 (R)

✓ Kentucky (8)

Projected: (D) 783,124 | 1,289,707 (R)

Actual: (D) 772,474 | 1,326,646 (R)

✓ Louisiana (8)

Projected: (D) 806,970 | 1,260,802 (R)

Actual: (D) 856,034 | 1,255,776 (R)

✓ Maine (3)*

Projected: (D) 420,747 | 344,570 (R)

Actual: (D) 434,966 | 360,480 (R)

✓ Maine (1)*

Projected: (D) 420,747 | 344,570 (R)

Actual: (D) 434,966 | 360,480 (R)

✓ Maryland (10)

Projected: (D) 1,925,886 | 947,342 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,985,023 | 976,414 (R)

✓ Massachusetts (11)

Projected: (D) 2,625,373 | 1,134,210 (R)

Actual: (D) 2,382,202 | 1,167,202 (R)

✖ Michigan (16)

Projected: (D) 2,622,934 | 2,639,430 (R)

Actual: (D) 2,804,040 | 2,649,852 (R)

✓ Minnesota (10)

Projected: (D) 1,551,480 | 1,511,310 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,717,077 | 1,484,065 (R)

✓ Mississippi (6)

Projected: (D) 465,910 | 679,823 (R)

Actual: (D) 539,508 | 756,789 (R)

✓ Missouri (10)

Projected: (D) 1,244,907 | 1,558,653 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,252,902 | 1,718,282 (R)

✓ Montana (3)

Projected: (D) 213,857 | 345,745 (R)

Actual: (D) 244,786 | 343,602 (R)

✓ Nebraska (4)*

Projected: (D) 321,953 | 547,793 (R)

Actual: (D) 374,583 | 556,846 (R)

✓ Nebraska (1)*

Projected: (D) 321,953 | 547,793 (R)

Actual: (D) 374,583 | 556,846 (R)

✓ Nevada (6)

Projected: (D) 733,307 | 663,717 (R)

Actual: (D) 703,486 | 669,890 (R)

✓ New Hampshire (4)

Projected: (D) 381,551 | 358,987 (R)

Actual: (D) 424,937 | 365,660 (R)

✓ New Jersey (14)

Projected: (D) 2,535,524 | 1,791,382 (R)

Actual: (D) 2,608,327 | 1,883,260 (R)

✓ New Mexico (5)

Projected: (D) 442,454 | 350,596 (R)

Actual: (D) 501,614 | 401,894 (R)

✓ New York (29)

Projected: (D) 4,394,829 | 2,811,957 (R)

Actual: (D) 5,244,006 | 3,251,230 (R)

✖ North Carolina (15)

Projected: (D) 2,790,530 | 2,771,945 (R)

Actual: (D) 2,684,292 | 2,758,775 (R)

✓ North Dakota (3)

Projected: (D) 118,757 | 221,200 (R)

Actual: (D) 114,902 | 235,595 (R)

✓ Ohio (18)

Projected: (D) 2,691,412 | 3,047,083 (R)

Actual: (D) 2,679,165 | 3,154,834 (R)

✓ Oklahoma (7)

Projected: (D) 467,427 | 1,024,608 (R)

Actual: (D) 503,890 | 1,020,280 (R)

✓ Oregon (7)

Projected: (D) 1,381,035 | 949,243 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,340,383 | 958,448 (R)

✖ Pennsylvania (20)

Projected: (D) 3,148,237 | 3,303,000 (R)

Actual: (D) 3,459,923 | 3,378,263 (R)

✓ Rhode Island (4)

Projected: (D) 282,275 | 192,018 (R)

Actual: (D) 307,486 | 199,922 (R)

✓ South Carolina (9)

Projected: (D) 918,778 | 1,391,159 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,091,541 | 1,385,103 (R)

✓ South Dakota (3)

Projected: (D) 145,972 | 258,919 (R)

Actual: (D) 150,471 | 261,043 (R)

✓ Tennessee (11)

Projected: (D) 1,014,627 | 1,904,697 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,143,711 | 1,852,475 (R)

✓ Texas (38)

Projected: (D) 5,324,077 | 6,080,899 (R)

Actual: (D) 5,259,126 | 5,890,347 (R)

✓ Utah (6)

Projected: (D) 590,179 | 671,337 (R)

Actual: (D) 560,282 | 865,140 (R)

✓ Vermont (3)

Projected: (D) 209,970 | 117,251 (R)

Actual: (D) 242,820 | 112,704 (R)

✓ Virginia (13)

Projected: (D) 2,471,521 | 1,817,451 (R)

Actual: (D) 2,413,568 | 1,962,430 (R)

✓ Washington (12)

Projected: (D) 1,898,325 | 1,324,593 (R)

Actual: (D) 2,369,612 | 1,584,651 (R)

✓ West Virginia (5)

Projected: (D) 285,702 | 466,418 (R)

Actual: (D) 235,984 | 545,382 (R)

✓ Wisconsin (10)

Projected: (D) 1,577,826 | 1,421,418 (R)

Actual: (D) 1,630,866 | 1,610,184 (R)

✓ Wyoming (3)

Projected: (D) 70,393 | 194,983 (R)

Actual: (D) 73,491 | 193,559 (R)

✓ Dictrict of Colombia (3)

Projected: (D) 294,792 | 16,894 (R)

Actual: (D) 317,323 | 18,586 (R)

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