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Recession Tracker (tCPI)


Predicting the Next Great American Downturn




The traditional recession indicator is rather simple yet broad, encompassing two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Our Recession Tracker algorithm instead focuses on several major and minor hallmarks of an economic downturn - commodities, industry, housing market, etc. We feel this provides better economic indicators and helps to form a more realistic Consumer Price Index (CPI) which we call the True CPI (tCPI). Currently, 17 total indexed are tracked to achieve the overarching tCPI value.

The following values last updated 10/01/2022.
True CPI (tCPI)
22.8%
(Trend: 7.0%)


Unemployment Index
3.8%
(Trend: -0.1%)
Copper Index
0.4%
(Trend: 2.3%)
Lumber Index
1.8%
(Trend: 5.3%)
Steel Index
1.2%
(Trend: 3.9%)
Housing Index
-8.8%
(Trend: -0.5%)
Common Stocks
0.1%
(Trend: -0.4%)
Healthcare Index
0.8%
(Trend: 1.5%)
Home Goods Index
0.0%
(Trend: 0.9%)
DIY Home Index
-0.2%
(Trend: 0.6%)
Logistics Index
-0.4%
(Trend: 1.1%)
Petroleum Index
-0.6%
(Trend: 0.3%)
Automotive Index
-0.2%
(Trend: 3.2%)
Entertainment Index
-0.1%
(Trend: 1.2%)
Restaurant Index
0.4%
(Trend: 0.8%)
Travel Index
-1.7%
(Trend: -2.1%)
Technology Index
0.3%
(Trend: 1.4%)
Defense Index
-0.1%
(Trend: 0.1%)
BREAKDOWN

True CPI (tCPI): Our in-house measurement of the 'true' Consumer Price Index (tCPI) incorporating mutiple factors including industry, customer goods, transport, logistics, and travel painting a clearer picture of ongoing / active inflation in the United States. Using our model, if you were paying $2.99 for 1lb of (non-organic) chicken in 2019, that price would now be $3.47 (assuming a tCPI of at least 15.9%). The traditional CPI value is a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics measurement, which tends to leave out critical factors, thus making inflation numbers appear lower than they actually are for the average consumer in America.

Unemployment Index: Measurement of the federal unemployment rate over the last 6 months. Naturally, low unemployment figures are better than high. While 'zero' is an impossibility, a 'high' unemployment rate (7.5% or greater) does much to signify a stumbling economy.

Copper Index: Measurement of the current demand for cooper and its related products. The material is essential to new home construction and existing home repair.

Lumber Index: Measurement of the current demand for lumber and related products. The material is essential to many functions of the home and businesses in general.

Steel Index: Broad measurement of the current demand for steel and steel-based products. The material is essential in all industries of the private, commercial, and industrial sectors.

Common Stocks: A broad measurement of common stocks that cover a multitude of in-house consumer needs on a daily basis.

Health Care Index: Broad measurement of various health related stocks. The lower these trend, the better for the American consumer.

Home Goods Index: A more precise measurement of common stocks covering a broad swath of daily home consumer goods / needs.

DIY Home Index: Measurement of the major players (namely suppliers) in the Do-It-Yourself home market.

Petroleum Index: Measurement of top oil producers / refiners primarily serving the United States. The critical, finite commodity is essential to daily function of the American economy, driving goods, people, and industry all across the country

Automotive Index: Current measurement of the major American automotive brands manufacturing new vehicles for the American consumer.

Housing Index: Measurement of the current house value trend over the last 12 months.

Entertainment Index: Measurement of an American's willingness to spend on entertainment (and related) products / services. The index reflects broader spending or contraction of consumer spending habits which has a direct effect on the current direction of the economy as entertainment is one of the earliest expenses given up on the road to recession.

Restaurant Index: This index tracks a broad set of common restaurant stocks as related to the average American consumer. Eating outside of the home is one of the earliest luxuries given up in an economic contraction.

Travel Index: Measurement of American willingness to spend / travel in the current global market. Less spending signifies a contraction which could help push the economy towards recession. Another early expense given up on the road to recession.

Technology Index: This index tracks the top global technology providers in military, civilian, and industry sectors. Reduced tech demand is in line with a slowing economy.

Defense Index: Measurement of the top American and global military defense players. Less money spend on defense adds to the contraction of the economy and affects ferderal spending as well as technology.
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