Presidential Voting History of Arizona (Since 1960)

The Electoral Voting history of the great state of Arizona

One-time Red State bastion now trends as a Swing State / Battleground State in Presidential Election cycles. Republicans dominated from 1960 to 1992 and from 2000 to 2016, losing only in 1996 and recently in 2020. The state has seen a population boom due to the mass exodus of residents from California which have driven both Republican and Democrat voter numbers in Arizona up by considerable margins (Democrats closing the gap in this regard). As such, Arizona Electoral Power is set to grow in the coming election cycles. Republicans take the state about 52% of the time and in 14 of the election cycles since 1960 but the state Picks the Winner only 56% of the time.

All data is from 1960 to the present day (covering what we term to be the 'Modern Voter') and focuses solely on the Democratic and Republican party results during that span.

Picking the Winner*

56.3%
(Correct in 9 of 16 elections since 1960)

Electoral Power

ASCENDING
(Influenced by U.S. Census data)

2020 Result

Democrat
(49.4%)

(2024 Projection)

Republican
(50.7%)

Dem +/- 354,831 :: Rep +/- 308,475

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

1960 - Arizona

D: 176,781

R: 221,241

✓ Kennedy (D) vs Nixon (R)

1960 Pop: 1,321,000

D+R Votes: 398,022 (30.1% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +44,460

D: 44.4% | R: 55.6%

EC Votes (ECVs): 4

1.5% of 269 ECVs needed to win.

0.7% of 537 overall available ECVs.

1960 Electoral Coverage

1964 - Arizona

(D) +60,972 | (R) +21,294

D: 237,753

R: 242,535

✓ Johnson (D) vs Goldwater (R)

1964 Pop: 1,556,000 (Diff: 235,000)

D+R Votes: 480,288 (30.9% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +4,782

D: 49.5% | R: 50.5%

EC Votes (ECVs): 5

1.9% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

0.9% of 538 overall available ECVs.

1964 Electoral Coverage

1968 - Arizona

(D) -67,239 | (R) +24,186

D: 170,514

R: 266,721

Humphrey (D) vs Nixon (R) ✓

1968 Pop: 1,682,000 (Diff: 126,000)

D+R Votes: 437,235 (26.0% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +96,207

D: 39.0% | R: 61.0%

EC Votes (ECVs): 5

1.9% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

0.9% of 538 overall available ECVs.

1968 Electoral Coverage

1972 - Arizona

(D) +28,026 | (R) +136,091

D: 198,540

R: 402,812

McGovern (D) vs Nixon (R) ✓

1972 Pop: 2,008,000 (Diff: 326,000)

D+R Votes: 601,352 (29.9% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +204,272

D: 33.0% | R: 67.0%

EC Votes (ECVs): 6

2.2% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

1.1% of 538 overall available ECVs.

1972 Electoral Coverage

1976 - Arizona

(D) +97,062 | (R) +15,830

D: 295,602

R: 418,642

✓ Carter (D) vs Ford (R)

1976 Pop: 2,346,000 (Diff: 338,000)

D+R Votes: 714,244 (30.4% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +123,040

D: 41.4% | R: 58.6%

EC Votes (ECVs): 6

2.2% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

1.1% of 538 overall available ECVs.

1976 Electoral Coverage

1980 - Arizona

(D) -48,759 | (R) +111,046

D: 246,843

R: 529,688

Carter (D) vs Reagan (R) ✓

1980 Pop: 2,810,000 (Diff: 464,000)

D+R Votes: 776,531 (27.6% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +282,845

D: 31.8% | R: 68.2%

EC Votes (ECVs): 6

2.2% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

1.1% of 538 overall available ECVs.

1980 Electoral Coverage

1984 - Arizona

(D) +87,011 | (R) +151,728

D: 333,854

R: 681,416

Mondale (D) vs Reagan (R) ✓

1984 Pop: 3,184,000 (Diff: 374,000)

D+R Votes: 1,015,270 (31.9% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +347,562

D: 32.9% | R: 67.1%

EC Votes (ECVs): 7

2.6% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

1.3% of 538 overall available ECVs.

1984 Electoral Coverage

1988 - Arizona

(D) +120,175 | (R) +21,125

D: 454,029

R: 702,541

Dukakis (D) vs H.W.Bush (R) ✓

1988 Pop: 3,622,000 (Diff: 438,000)

D+R Votes: 1,156,570 (31.9% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +248,512

D: 39.3% | R: 60.7%

EC Votes (ECVs): 7

2.6% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

1.3% of 538 overall available ECVs.

1988 Electoral Coverage

1992 - Arizona

(D) +89,021 | (R) -130,455

D: 543,050

R: 572,086

✓ B.Clinton (D) vs H.W.Bush (R)

1992 Pop: 3,867,000 (Diff: 245,000)

D+R Votes: 1,115,136 (28.8% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +29,036

D: 48.7% | R: 51.3%

EC Votes (ECVs): 8

3.0% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

1.5% of 538 overall available ECVs.

1992 Electoral Coverage

1996 - Arizona

(D) +110,238 | (R) +49,987

D: 653,288

R: 622,073

✓ B.Clinton (D) vs Dole (R)

1996 Pop: 4,432,000 (Diff: 565,000)

D+R Votes: 1,275,361 (28.8% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +31,215

D: 51.2% | R: 48.8%

EC Votes (ECVs): 8

3.0% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

1.5% of 538 overall available ECVs.

1996 Electoral Coverage

2000 - Arizona

(D) +32,053 | (R) +159,579

D: 685,341

R: 781,652

Gore (D) vs W.Bush (R) ✓

2000 Pop: 4,883,000 (Diff: 451,000)

D+R Votes: 1,466,993 (30.0% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +96,311

D: 46.7% | R: 53.3%

EC Votes (ECVs): 8

3.0% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

1.5% of 538 overall available ECVs.

2000 Electoral Coverage

2004 - Arizona

(D) +208,183 | (R) +322,642

D: 893,524

R: 1,104,294

Kerry (D) vs W.Bush (R) ✓

2004 Pop: 5,759,000 (Diff: 876,000)

D+R Votes: 1,997,818 (34.7% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +210,770

D: 44.7% | R: 55.3%

EC Votes (ECVs): 10

3.7% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

1.9% of 538 overall available ECVs.

2004 Electoral Coverage

2008 - Arizona

(D) +141,183 | (R) +125,817

D: 1,034,707

R: 1,230,111

✓ Obama (D) vs McCain (R)

2008 Pop: 6,499,000 (Diff: 740,000)

D+R Votes: 2,264,818 (34.8% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +195,404

D: 45.7% | R: 54.3%

EC Votes (ECVs): 10

3.7% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

1.9% of 538 overall available ECVs.

2008 Electoral Coverage

2012 - Arizona

(D) -9,475 | (R) +3,543

D: 1,025,232

R: 1,233,654

✓ Obama (D) vs Romney (R)

2012 Pop: 6,556,344 (Diff: 57,344)

D+R Votes: 2,258,886 (34.5% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +208,422

D: 45.4% | R: 54.6%

EC Votes (ECVs): 11

4.1% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

2.0% of 538 overall available ECVs.

2012 Electoral Coverage

2016 - Arizona

(D) +135,935 | (R) +18,747

D: 1,161,167

R: 1,252,401

H.Clinton (D) vs Trump (R) ✓

2016 Pop: 6,944,767 (Diff: 388,423)

D+R Votes: 2,413,568 (34.8% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +91,234

D: 48.1% | R: 51.9%

EC Votes (ECVs): 11

4.1% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

2.0% of 538 overall available ECVs.

2016 Electoral Coverage

2020 - Arizona

(D) +510,976 | (R) +409,285

D: 1,672,143

R: 1,661,686

✓ Biden (D) vs Trump (R)

2020 Pop: 7,421,401 (Diff: 476,634)

D+R Votes: 3,333,829 (44.9% of Pop)

Margin of Victory: +10,457

D: 50.2% | R: 49.8%

EC Votes (ECVs): 11

4.1% of 270 ECVs needed to win.

2.0% of 538 overall available ECVs.

2020 Electoral Coverage

NOTES:
1) 3rd Party votes / victories are not taken into account as the sole focus of this site is on the Democratic and Republican parties.
2) Pop = Population; These figures are derived from publicly available census figures.
3) D = Democrat/Democratic; R = Republican.
4) D+R Votes = total number of Democratic and Republican votes cast in the presidential election for that year.
5) EC = Electoral College; ECVs = Electoral College Votes.

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