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2024 Election Projection 2022 Approval Rating Interactive Electoral Map Voting Trends by State Favorability Index

2020 Presidential Election


Donald Trump vs Joe Biden (November 3rd, 2020)


Winner's ribbon image graphic
Photograph of Joe Biden
Joe Biden (DE)
Democrat

Occupation: Politics
Running Mate: Kamala Harris
Carried Home State (Delaware): Yes
Incumbent Status: No
Favorability Index: 242.1
306
Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
25 of 50 states carried (50%)


81,268,924
Popular Vote (52.3%)
24.7% of the U.S. population supported this candidate.
232
Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
25 of 50 states carried (50%)


74,216,154
Popular Vote (47.7%)
22.5% of the U.S. population supported this candidate.
Winner's ribbon image graphic
Photograph of Donald Trump
Donald Trump (FL)
Republican

Occupation: Business
Running Mate: Mike Pence
Carried Home State (Florida): Yes
Incumbent Status: Yes
Favorability Index: 247.8


U.S. Economic Ratings at Time of Election

6.7%
Unemployment
-2.3%
GDP
1.25%
Inflation
$2.15
Natl Avg Gal/Gas




Candidate Joe Biden proved to be the 'anti-Trump' vote if nothing else, the aging career politician eventually winning tight races in Battleground States of Arizona (0.3%), Georgia (0.23%), Michigan (2.78%), Pennsylvania (1.17%), Wisconsin (0.63%) showcasing a clearly divided electorate (the margin in these states combined was just 277,661 votes collectively offering 73 total electoral votes between them, and these votes going on to decide the overall winner of the 2020 election). Comparatively, these five states provided Trump with a cushion of 1,762,655 votes back in 2016 (a difference of +1,484,994 votes).

Perhaps quite surprising to the Biden campaign were the distant seconds placed in both swing states of Florida (by 371,686 votes) and Ohio (by 475,669 votes). In 2016, Hillary Clinton managed a tighter race in Florida, losing by 112,911 votes but still failed to make much headway in Ohio with a -446,841 votes difference to eventual winner Trump. As battlegrounds, the two states were expected to run much closer.

The numbers suggest this was a close race that could have been anyone's election victory, not quite the landslide anticipated by many and despite Biden's seemingly comfortable Electoral Vote count of 306 to 232 and a Popular Vote victory of +7,052,770 votes. Should Trump have taken Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin (a collective difference of just 42,918 votes), the election would have ended in an Electoral College vote tie (269 v. 269). Winning Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan or Pennsylvania (176,424 and 102,791 votes, respectively) would have put him over the top - such were the razor-thin margins of this election. Of note is Trump doing better in 2016 across these five key swing states in 2016 (380,119 votes) against Biden (277,661 votes) in 2020.

Biden's Margin of Victory in Key States:

Arizona = 10,457 votes
Georgia = 11,779 votes
Michigan = 154,188 votes
Pennsylvania = 80,555 votes
Wisconsin = 20,682 votes
--- TOTAL: 277,661 ---
STATE EC VOTES (538 TOTAL):
* Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not follow the 'winner-take-all' rule regarding their Electoral Votes per candidate. This allows for a more proportional division of the claimed Electoral Votes. Any third party candidate wins (if applicable) are represented in ORANGE. See NOTES below for additional information.
306
232
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (11)
Arkansas (6)
California (55)
Colorado (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Hawaii (4)
Idaho (4)
Illinois (20)
Indiana (11)
Iowa (6)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Maine (3)*
Maine (1)*
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (4)*
Nebraska (1)*
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Ohio (18)
Oklahoma (7)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Rhode Island (4)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)
Washington (12)
West Virginia (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Wyoming (3)
Dictrict of Colombia (3)


TOTAL ELECTORAL VOTES AVAILABLE by REGION:
NORTHEAST - 96 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)
MIDWEST - 118 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)
WEST - 128 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)
SOUTH - 193 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)
SPECIAL - 3 (District of Columbia)
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