2024 Presidential Election

A by-the-numbers approach determining the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

The AmericanPresidents.net 2024 forecast predicts, to the final popular vote being cast, the results of the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election. The projection does not take into account who the actual Republican and Democrat candidates will be, instead attempting to define the winner based purely on voter patterns by state recorded over the last three Presidential Election cycles (2012, 2016, 2020).

According to the resulting data, key races to watch will be in Arizona (R, +43,466), Maine (D, +16,216), Michigan (R, +27,268), Minnesota (D, +141,842), Nevada (D, +16,491), New Hampshire (D, +29,032), North Carolina (R, +145,103), Pennsylvania (R, +56,898), and Wisconsin (R, +64,976) with a combined difference of 541,292 votes making up 95 total Electoral Votes (EVs). No major upsets are expected though Republicans will be slightly threatening to flip long-time Democrat bastions such as Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine. The Republicans appear to take back Arizona and Georgia while Biden's 2020 victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will all be reversed. The 'Purple Prizes' in the 2024 election will be Georgia (16ev), Michigan (15ev), North Carolina (16ev), and Pennsylvania (19ev) accounting for a total of 66 EVs - we forecast all of these states going to the Republican candidate.

Our results forecast a Republican White House victory with EV numbers close to that of the Democrats in November 2020. Democrats will, once again, claim the Popular Vote but by a far smaller margin than in 2020. The Republicans will claim more overall states and, thusly, more of the EV total.

By our count, Swing States will continue to provide the needed 'swing' to the victor with close races across the lot - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Republican Margin of Victory in Key States:
Arizona = +43,466 votes
Georgia = +114,652 votes
Michigan = +154,188 votes
Pennsylvania = +56,898 votes
Wisconsin = +20,682 votes
--- TOTAL: +307,260 ---

Takeaways: The Republicans claim key states lost narrowingly lost by Trump in 2020 and with slightly wider margins of victory, particularly in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. A razor-thin result is expected in Michigan (with a rather surprising Republicans victory). Using these totals, the race will be called by a margin of just 307,260 votes leaning Republican - a slightly wider margin of victory than Biden saw in 2020 (277,661 votes). Notable (relatively) close races (all three going to the Democrats) include Maine (+16,216 votes), Minnesota (141,842 votes), and New Hampshire (29,032 votes) perhaps revealing ground being gained by Republicans in these reliably Blue states.

Why the Democrats Will Lose:
If the economy continues to drag, the Democrats will lose on their tax-and-spend approach to budget management. High gas prices, high energy costs, steady / rising inflation, a full-blown recession, ongoing post-pandemic supply chain issues, and a laser-focus on minority agenda items will be the sticking points of the election going against the party (remember the Administration labeled inflation as 'transitory' for months while Americans though otherwise). The effort may be saved by Biden's legislative victories in the summer of 2022 and the SCOTUS reversal of Roe v Wade.

It remains to be seen if Americans will be comfortable voting for 82-year-old Biden who has already shown cognitive issues and a general disconnect from his voters through his short stint as President - of note is that Biden has reiterated (in April 2022 and several times thereafter) his intention to represent the party in 2024. His popularity has hit all-time lows and has never recovered following the disastrous exit from Afghanistan which left thirteen U.S. Marines dead (this marked the beginning of Biden's approval decline).

While Biden is committed to a 2024 run, many in the Democratic Party circle are beginning to become more vocal about him stepping aside. Key replacements appear to be California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker who remain popular at home with the base but are lesser known nationally. Newsom survived a recall attempt to remain governor of California and Pritzker is known for his severe COVID lockdowns which led to many businesses shuttering their doors for good (or leaving the state altogether). Both candidates have deep pockets and come from powerful families though both of their Blue-heavy states have suffered from a decline in residents, these so-called 'Leftfugees' flooding Red States such as Texas, Florida, and Tennessee in response.

At the end of the day, Democrats cannot continue to blame Trump for all their ills nor the pandemic of which a good many Americans have since moved on from. The current state of the country is the Party's to own up to - and their lack of cohesion, direction, and generally misplaced priorities could very well put Donald Trump back in the White House in 2024.

Why the Republicans will Win:
Heading into August 2022, by all accounts, this Presidential Election cycle will be the Republican's to lose; Voters will be convinced that the alternative is the 'right party for the moment' (or the lesser of two evils) if the American economy continues to struggle under Democrat rule; Key players for succeeding Biden remain former President Donald Trump, who is still hugely popular and influential in the GOP (all the while remaining as divisive as ever) with his 'America First' approach, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who continues to gain popularity within the party ranks and represents a milder - though straight-talking - candidate. Other notable entries could become Tom Cotton, Nikki Haley, and Mike Pompeo.

Base on the numbers alone, the Republican candidate's popularity will be close to that of G.W. Bush (2000), R.Nixon (1968), and Obama (2012) with a 'Favorability Index' rating of 263.2. In comparison, the losing Democratic Party candidate is set to score a 180.4 - falling between between M.Romney (2012) and H.Clinton (2016).

Candidate #1 (TBA)
Republican

Occupation: TBA

Running Mate: TBA

Carried Home State (TBA): TBA

Incumbent Status: TBA

Favorability Index: 263.2

307
Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
30 of 50 states carried (60.0%)

71,077,780
Popular Vote (48.7%)

231
Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
20(+D.C.) of 50 states carried (40.0%)

74,925,915
Popular Vote (51.3%)

Candidate #2 (TBA)
Democrat

Occupation: TBA

Running Mate: TBA

Carried Home State (TBA): TBA

Incumbent Status: TBA

Favorability Index: 180.4

AVAILABLE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES (538 TOTAL):

1) Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not follow the 'winner-take-all' rule regarding their Electoral Votes per candidate. This allows for a more proportional division of the claimed Electoral Votes.
2) Projections below are based on trends observed in each state from the 2008, 2016, and 2020 presidential election cycles.
3) It is assumed that, for the 2024 election, COVID-19 no longer casts a shadow on the election period and this accounts for lower turnout in most states (less reliance on mail-in voting, absentee ballots, early voting, etc.).
4) Electoral vote values below have been adjusted to coincide with the 2020 census results: Democrats lose in California (-1), New York (-1), Illinois (-1), Michigan (-1), and Pennsylvania (-1) but gain in Colorado (+1) and Oregon (+1). Republicans gain in Texas (+2), Florida (+1), and Montana (+1) but lose in Ohio (-1) and West Virginia (-1). Swing State North Carolina gains (+1).

Image of the projected 2024 Electoral Map

307

231

Alabama (9)

Projected: (D) 804,435 | 1,395,893 (R)

2020: (D) 849,624 | 1,441,170 (R)

Alaska (3)

Projected: (D) 140,621 | 171,771 (R)

2020: (D) 153,778 | 189,951 (R)

Arizona (11)

Projected: (D) 1,490,816 | 1,534,282 (R)

2020: (D) 1,672,143 | 1,661,686 (R)

Arkansas (6)

Projected: (D) 399,982 | 738,802 (R)

2020: (D) 423,932 | 760,647 (R)

California (54)

Projected: (D) 10,171,788 | 5,454,209 (R)

2020: (D) 11,110,250 | 6,006,429 (R)

Colorado (10)

Projected: (D) 1,654,004 | 1,354,447 (R)

2020: (D) 1,804,352 | 1,364,607 (R)

Connecticut (7)

Projected: (D) 1,043,207 | 761,381 (R)

2020: (D) 1,080,860 | 715,291 (R)

Delaware (3)

Projected: (D) 271,225 | 200,344 (R)

2020: (D) 296,268 | 200,603 (R)

Florida (30)

Projected: (D) 5,029,553 | 5,346,123 (R)

2020: (D) 5,297,045 | 5,668,731 (R)

Georgia (16)

Projected: (D) 2,242,572 | 2,357,224 (R)

2020: (D) 2,474,507 | 2,461,837 (R)

Hawaii (4)

Projected: (D) 327,672 | 173,316 (R)

2020: (D) 366,130 | 196,864 (R)

Idaho (4)

Projected: (D) 245,659 | 512,797 (R)

2020: (D) 287,031 | 554,119 (R)

Illinois (19)

Projected: (D) 3,243,945 | 2,383,952 (R)

2020: (D) 3,471,915 | 2,446,891 (R)

Indiana (11)

Projected: (D) 1,100,557 | 1,695,448 (R)

2020: (D) 1,242,413 | 1,729,516 (R)

Iowa (6)

Projected: (D) 721,479 | 881,840 (R)

2020: (D) 759,061 | 897,672 (R)

Kansas (6)

Projected: (D) 494,448 | 737,811 (R)

2020: (D) 551,144 | 752,903 (R)

Kentucky (8)

Projected: (D) 772,560 | 1,239,825 (R)

2020: (D) 772,474 | 1,326,646 (R)

Louisiana (8)

Projected: (D) 838,669 | 1,232,182 (R)

2020: (D) 856,034 | 1,255,776 (R)

Maine (3)*

Projected: (D) 410,959 | 394,743 (R)

2020: (D) 434,966 | 360,480 (R)

Maine (1)*

Projected: (D) 410,959 | 394,743 (R)

2020: (D) 434,966 | 360,480 (R)

Maryland (10)

Projected: (D) 1,896,684 | 971,434 (R)

2020: (D) 1,985,023 | 976,414 (R)

Massachusetts (11)

Projected: (D) 2,254,564 | 1,211,518 (R)

2020: (D) 2,382,202 | 1,167,202 (R)

Michigan (15)

Projected: (D) 2,523,684 | 2,550,952 (R)

2020: (D) 2,804,040 | 2,649,852 (R)

Minnesota (10)

Projected: (D) 1,589,351 | 1,447,509 (R)

2020: (D) 1,717,077 | 1,484,065 (R)

Mississippi (6)

Projected: (D) 523,214 | 734,320 (R)

2020: (D) 539,508 | 756,789 (R)

Missouri (10)

Projected: (D) 1,119,040 | 1,690,157 (R)

2020: (D) 1,252,902 | 1,718,282 (R)

Montana (4)

Projected: (D) 212,283 | 330,200 (R)

2020: (D) 244,786 | 343,602 (R)

Nebraska (4)*

Projected: (D) 333,180 | 544,873 (R)

2020: (D) 374,583 | 556,846 (R)

Nebraska (1)*

Projected: (D) 333,180 | 544,873 (R)

2020: (D) 374,583 | 556,846 (R)

Nevada (6)

Projected: (D) 649,320 | 632,829 (R)

2020: (D) 703,486 | 669,890 (R)

New Hampshire (4)

Projected: (D) 393,454 | 364,422 (R)

2020: (D) 424,937 | 365,660 (R)

New Jersey (14)

Projected: (D) 2,424,847 | 1,744,295 (R)

2020: (D) 2,608,327 | 1,883,260 (R)

New Mexico (5)

Projected: (D) 443,885 | 370,711 (R)

2020: (D) 501,614 | 401,894 (R)

New York (28)

Projected: (D) 4,807,196 | 3,121,157 (R)

2020: (D) 5,244,006 | 3,251,230 (R)

North Carolina (16)

Projected: (D) 2,530,072 | 2,675,175 (R)

2020: (D) 2,684,292 | 2,758,775 (R)

North Dakota (3)

Projected: (D) 102,565 | 235,616 (R)

2020: (D) 114,902 | 235,595 (R)

Ohio (17)

Projected: (D) 2,545,812 | 3,045,671 (R)

2020: (D) 2,679,165 | 3,154,834 (R)

Oklahoma (7)

Projected: (D) 455,739 | 974,281 (R)

2020: (D) 503,890 | 1,020,280 (R)

Oregon (8)

Projected: (D) 1,202,616 | 907,740 (R)

2020: (D) 1,340,383 | 958,448 (R)

Pennsylvania (19)

Projected: (D) 3,190,219 | 3,247,117 (R)

2020: (D) 3,459,923 | 3,378,263 (R)

Rhode Island (4)

Projected: (D) 283,701 | 190,566 (R)

2020: (D) 307,486 | 199,922 (R)

South Carolina (9)

Projected: (D) 1,014,413 | 1,320,351 (R)

2020: (D) 1,091,541 | 1,385,103 (R)

South Dakota (3)

Projected: (D) 129,259 | 252,551 (R)

2020: (D) 150,471 | 261,043 (R)

Tennessee (11)

Projected: (D) 1,008,385 | 1,739,087 (R)

2020: (D) 1,143,711 | 1,852,475 (R)

Texas (40)

Projected: (D) 4,696,991 | 5,546,965 (R)

2020: (D) 5,259,126 | 5,890,347 (R)

Utah (6)

Projected: (D) 446,242 | 802,245 (R)

2020: (D) 560,282 | 865,140 (R)

Vermont (3)

Projected: (D) 214,247 | 105,317 (R)

2020: (D) 242,820 | 112,704 (R)

Virginia (13)

Projected: (D) 2,269,355 | 1,934,884 (R)

2020: (D) 2,413,568 | 1,962,430 (R)

Washington (12)

Projected: (D) 2,159,355 | 1,486,976 (R)

2020: (D) 2,369,612 | 1,584,651 (R)

West Virginia (5)

Projected: (D) 198,794 | 533,039 (R)

2020: (D) 235,984 | 545,382 (R)

Wisconsin (10)

Projected: (D) 1,527,282 | 1,592,258 (R)

2020: (D) 1,630,866 | 1,610,184 (R)

Wyoming (3)

Projected: (D) 63,020 | 189,285 (R)

2020: (D) 73,491 | 193,559 (R)

Dictrict of Colombia (3)

Projected: (D) 313,000 | 17,884 (R)

2020: (D) 317,323 | 18,586 (R)

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