☰
MENU
☰
MENU
×
T.A.R. Approval Tracker
Interactive Electoral Map
Trends by State
Favorability Index
2024 Projection
2020 Election

2024 Presidential Election


A by-the-numbers approach determining the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election


Winner's ribbon image graphic

Candidate #1 (TBA)
Republican

Occupation: TBA
Running Mate: TBA
Carried Home State (TBA): TBA
Incumbent Status: TBA
Favorability Index: 263.2
307
Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
30 of 50 states carried (60.0%)

71,077,780
Popular Vote (48.7%)
231
Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
20(+D.C.) of 50 states carried (40.0%)

74,925,915
Popular Vote (51.3%)

Candidate #2 (TBA)
Democrat

Occupation: TBA
Running Mate: TBA
Carried Home State (TBA): TBA
Incumbent Status: TBA
Favorability Index: 180.4


AVAILABLE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES (538 TOTAL):
1) Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not follow the 'winner-take-all' rule regarding their Electoral Votes per candidate. This allows for a more proportional division of the claimed Electoral Votes.
2) Projections below are based on trends observed in each state from the 2008, 2016, and 2020 presidential election cycles.
3) It is assumed that, for the 2024 election, COVID-19 no longer casts a shadow on the election period and this accounts for lower turnout in most states (less reliance on mail-in voting, absentee ballots, early voting, etc.).
4) Republicans take back Arizona and Georgia.
5) Tight races are observed in Arizona (R), Michigan (R), Nevada (D), Pennsylvania (R), and Wisconsin (R).
6) Electoral vote values below have been adjusted to coincide with the 2020 census results: Democrats lose in California (-1), New York (-1), Illinois (-1), Michigan (-1), and Pennsylvania (-1) but gain in Colorado (+1) and Oregon (+1). Republicans gain in Texas (+2), Florida (+1), and Montana (+1) but lose in Ohio (-1) and West Virginia (-1). Swing State North Carolina gains (+1).


307
231
Alabama (9)
Projected: (D) 804,435 | 1,395,893 (R)
2020: (D) 849,624 | 1,441,170 (R)
Alaska (3)
Projected: (D) 140,621 | 171,771 (R)
2020: (D) 153,778 | 189,951 (R)
Arizona (11)
Projected: (D) 1,490,816 | 1,534,282 (R)
2020: (D) 1,672,143 | 1,661,686 (R)
Arkansas (6)
Projected: (D) 399,982 | 738,802 (R)
2020: (D) 423,932 | 760,647 (R)
California (54)
Projected: (D) 10,171,788 | 5,454,209 (R)
2020: (D) 11,110,250 | 6,006,429 (R)
Colorado (10)
Projected: (D) 1,654,004 | 1,354,447 (R)
2020: (D) 1,804,352 | 1,364,607 (R)
Connecticut (7)
Projected: (D) 1,043,207 | 761,381 (R)
2020: (D) 1,080,860 | 715,291 (R)
Delaware (3)
Projected: (D) 271,225 | 200,344 (R)
2020: (D) 296,268 | 200,603 (R)
Florida (30)
Projected: (D) 5,029,553 | 5,346,123 (R)
2020: (D) 5,297,045 | 5,668,731 (R)
Georgia (16)
Projected: (D) 2,242,572 | 2,357,224 (R)
2020: (D) 2,474,507 | 2,461,837 (R)
Hawaii (4)
Projected: (D) 327,672 | 173,316 (R)
2020: (D) 366,130 | 196,864 (R)
Idaho (4)
Projected: (D) 245,659 | 512,797 (R)
2020: (D) 287,031 | 554,119 (R)
Illinois (19)
Projected: (D) 3,243,945 | 2,383,952 (R)
2020: (D) 3,471,915 | 2,446,891 (R)
Indiana (11)
Projected: (D) 1,100,557 | 1,695,448 (R)
2020: (D) 1,242,413 | 1,729,516 (R)
Iowa (6)
Projected: (D) 721,479 | 881,840 (R)
2020: (D) 759,061 | 897,672 (R)
Kansas (6)
Projected: (D) 494,448 | 737,811 (R)
2020: (D) 551,144 | 752,903 (R)
Kentucky (8)
Projected: (D) 772,560 | 1,239,825 (R)
2020: (D) 772,474 | 1,326,646 (R)
Louisiana (8)
Projected: (D) 838,669 | 1,232,182 (R)
2020: (D) 856,034 | 1,255,776 (R)
Maine (3)*
Projected: (D) 410,959 | 394,743 (R)
2020: (D) 434,966 | 360,480 (R)
Maine (1)*
Projected: (D) 410,959 | 394,743 (R)
2020: (D) 434,966 | 360,480 (R)
Maryland (10)
Projected: (D) 1,896,684 | 971,434 (R)
2020: (D) 1,985,023 | 976,414 (R)
Massachusetts (11)
Projected: (D) 2,254,564 | 1,211,518 (R)
2020: (D) 2,382,202 | 1,167,202 (R)
Michigan (15)
Projected: (D) 2,523,684 | 2,550,952 (R)
2020: (D) 2,804,040 | 2,649,852 (R)
Minnesota (10)
Projected: (D) 1,589,351 | 1,447,509 (R)
2020: (D) 1,717,077 | 1,484,065 (R)
Mississippi (6)
Projected: (D) 523,214 | 734,320 (R)
2020: (D) 539,508 | 756,789 (R)
Missouri (10)
Projected: (D) 1,119,040 | 1,690,157 (R)
2020: (D) 1,252,902 | 1,718,282 (R)
Montana (4)
Projected: (D) 212,283 | 330,200 (R)
2020: (D) 244,786 | 343,602 (R)
Nebraska (4)*
Projected: (D) 333,180 | 544,873 (R)
2020: (D) 374,583 | 556,846 (R)
Nebraska (1)*
Projected: (D) 333,180 | 544,873 (R)
2020: (D) 374,583 | 556,846 (R)
Nevada (6)
Projected: (D) 649,320 | 632,829 (R)
2020: (D) 703,486 | 669,890 (R)
New Hampshire (4)
Projected: (D) 393,454 | 364,422 (R)
2020: (D) 424,937 | 365,660 (R)
New Jersey (14)
Projected: (D) 2,424,847 | 1,744,295 (R)
2020: (D) 2,608,327 | 1,883,260 (R)
New Mexico (5)
Projected: (D) 443,885 | 370,711 (R)
2020: (D) 501,614 | 401,894 (R)
New York (28)
Projected: (D) 4,807,196 | 3,121,157 (R)
2020: (D) 5,244,006 | 3,251,230 (R)
North Carolina (16)
Projected: (D) 2,530,072 | 2,675,175 (R)
2020: (D) 2,684,292 | 2,758,775 (R)
North Dakota (3)
Projected: (D) 102,565 | 235,616 (R)
2020: (D) 114,902 | 235,595 (R)
Ohio (17)
Projected: (D) 2,545,812 | 3,045,671 (R)
2020: (D) 2,679,165 | 3,154,834 (R)
Oklahoma (7)
Projected: (D) 455,739 | 974,281 (R)
2020: (D) 503,890 | 1,020,280 (R)
Oregon (8)
Projected: (D) 1,202,616 | 907,740 (R)
2020: (D) 1,340,383 | 958,448 (R)
Pennsylvania (19)
Projected: (D) 3,190,219 | 3,247,117 (R)
2020: (D) 3,459,923 | 3,378,263 (R)
Rhode Island (4)
Projected: (D) 283,701 | 190,566 (R)
2020: (D) 307,486 | 199,922 (R)
South Carolina (9)
Projected: (D) 1,014,413 | 1,320,351 (R)
2020: (D) 1,091,541 | 1,385,103 (R)
South Dakota (3)
Projected: (D) 129,259 | 252,551 (R)
2020: (D) 150,471 | 261,043 (R)
Tennessee (11)
Projected: (D) 1,008,385 | 1,739,087 (R)
2020: (D) 1,143,711 | 1,852,475 (R)
Texas (40)
Projected: (D) 4,696,991 | 5,546,965 (R)
2020: (D) 5,259,126 | 5,890,347 (R)
Utah (6)
Projected: (D) 446,242 | 802,245 (R)
2020: (D) 560,282 | 865,140 (R)
Vermont (3)
Projected: (D) 214,247 | 105,317 (R)
2020: (D) 242,820 | 112,704 (R)
Virginia (13)
Projected: (D) 2,269,355 | 1,934,884 (R)
2020: (D) 2,413,568 | 1,962,430 (R)
Washington (12)
Projected: (D) 2,159,355 | 1,486,976 (R)
2020: (D) 2,369,612 | 1,584,651 (R)
West Virginia (5)
Projected: (D) 198,794 | 533,039 (R)
2020: (D) 235,984 | 545,382 (R)
Wisconsin (10)
Projected: (D) 1,527,282 | 1,592,258 (R)
2020: (D) 1,630,866 | 1,610,184 (R)
Wyoming (3)
Projected: (D) 63,020 | 189,285 (R)
2020: (D) 73,491 | 193,559 (R)
Dictrict of Colombia (3)
Projected: (D) 313,000 | 17,884 (R)
2020: (D) 317,323 | 18,586 (R)
Site Disclaimer  |  Privacy Policy  |  Cookies


Biden Approval Ratings 2024 Projection Interactive Electoral Map Electoral Voting Data by State Candidate Favorability Index American Presidents


www.AmericanPresidents.net • Content ©2019- AmericanPresidents.net • All Rights Reserved. The AmericanPresidents.net logo, its written content, and derived statistical values are unique to this website (unless where indicated) and is protected by all applicable domestic and international intellectual property laws. This resource uses publically-released information. No endorsement of this site by any political group or party should be implied. Information found across this site, verified through publicly available sources, is assumed to be accurate at the time of publication. Material presented throughout this website is for historical and entertainment value only.

www.AmericanPresidents.net • All Rights Reserved • Content ©2019-