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Voting Trends by State
Interactive Electoral Map
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2024 Presidential Election


A by-the-numbers approach determining the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election


Winner's ribbon image graphic

Candidate #1 (TBA)
Republican

Occupation: TBA
Running Mate: TBA
Carried Home State (TBA): TBA
Incumbent Status: TBA
Favorability Index: 263.2
304
Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
30 of 50 states carried (60.0%)

71,077,780
Popular Vote (48.7%)
234
Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
20 of 50 states carried (40.0%)

74,925,915
Popular Vote (51.3%)

Candidate #2 (TBA)
Republican

Occupation: TBA
Running Mate: TBA
Carried Home State (TBA): TBA
Incumbent Status: TBA
Favorability Index: 180.4


AVAILABLE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES (538 TOTAL):
1) Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not follow the 'winner-take-all' rule regarding their Electoral Votes per candidate. This allows for a more proportional division of the claimed Electoral Votes.
2) Projections below are based on trends observed in each state from the 2008, 2016, and 2020 presidential election cycles.
3) It is assumed that, for the 2024 election, COVID-19 no longer casts a shadow on the election period and this accounts for lower figures in most states (less reliance on mail-in voting, absentee ballots, early voting, etc.).
4) Republicans take back Arizona and Georgia.
5) Tight races are observed in Arizona (R), Maine (D), Michigan (R), New Hampshire (D), Nevada (D), Pennsylvania (R), and Wisconsin (R).
304
234
Alabama (9)
Projected: (D) 804,435 | 1,395,893 (R)
2020: (D) 849,624 | 1,441,170 (R)
Alaska (3)
Projected: (D) 140,621 | 171,771 (R)
2020: (D) 153,778 | 189,951 (R)
Arizona (11)
Projected: (D) 1,490,816 | 1,534,282 (R)
2020: (D) 1,672,143 | 1,661,686 (R)
Arkansas (6)
Projected: (D) 399,982 | 738,802 (R)
2020: (D) 423,932 | 760,647 (R)
California (55)
Projected: (D) 10,171,788 | 5,454,209 (R)
2020: (D) 11,110,250 | 6,006,429 (R)
Colorado (9)
Projected: (D) 1,654,004 | 1,354,447 (R)
2020: (D) 1,804,352 | 1,364,607 (R)
Connecticut (7)
Projected: (D) 1,043,207 | 761,381 (R)
2020: (D) 1,080,860 | 715,291 (R)
Delaware (3)
Projected: (D) 271,225 | 200,344 (R)
2020: (D) 296,268 | 200,603 (R)
Florida (29)
Projected: (D) 5,029,553 | 5,346,123 (R)
2020: (D) 5,297,045 | 5,668,731 (R)
Georgia (16)
Projected: (D) 2,242,572 | 2,357,224 (R)
2020: (D) 2,474,507 | 2,461,837 (R)
Hawaii (4)
Projected: (D) 327,672 | 173,316 (R)
2020: (D) 366,130 | 196,864 (R)
Idaho (4)
Projected: (D) 245,659 | 512,797 (R)
2020: (D) 287,031 | 554,119 (R)
Illinois (20)
Projected: (D) 3,243,945 | 2,383,952 (R)
2020: (D) 3,471,915 | 2,446,891 (R)
Indiana (11)
Projected: (D) 1,100,557 | 1,695,448 (R)
2020: (D) 1,242,413 | 1,729,516 (R)
Iowa (6)
Projected: (D) 721,479 | 881,840 (R)
2020: (D) 759,061 | 897,672 (R)
Kansas (6)
Projected: (D) 494,448 | 737,811 (R)
2020: (D) 551,144 | 752,903 (R)
Kentucky (8)
Projected: (D) 772,560 | 1,239,825 (R)
2020: (D) 772,474 | 1,326,646 (R)
Louisiana (8)
Projected: (D) 838,669 | 1,232,182 (R)
2020: (D) 856,034 | 1,255,776 (R)
Maine (3)*
Projected: (D) 410,959 | 394,743 (R)
2020: (D) 434,966 | 360,480 (R)
Maine (1)*
Projected: (D) 410,959 | 394,743 (R)
2020: (D) 434,966 | 360,480 (R)
Maryland (10)
Projected: (D) 1,896,684 | 971,434 (R)
2020: (D) 1,985,023 | 976,414 (R)
Massachusetts (11)
Projected: (D) 2,254,564 | 1,211,518 (R)
2020: (D) 2,382,202 | 1,167,202 (R)
Michigan (16)
Projected: (D) 2,523,684 | 2,550,952 (R)
2020: (D) 2,804,040 | 2,649,852 (R)
Minnesota (10)
Projected: (D) 1,589,351 | 1,447,509 (R)
2020: (D) 1,717,077 | 1,484,065 (R)
Mississippi (6)
Projected: (D) 523,214 | 734,320 (R)
2020: (D) 539,508 | 756,789 (R)
Missouri (10)
Projected: (D) 1,119,040 | 1,690,157 (R)
2020: (D) 1,252,902 | 1,718,282 (R)
Montana (3)
Projected: (D) 212,283 | 330,200 (R)
2020: (D) 244,786 | 343,602 (R)
Nebraska (4)*
Projected: (D) 333,180 | 544,873 (R)
2020: (D) 374,583 | 556,846 (R)
Nebraska (1)*
Projected: (D) 333,180 | 544,873 (R)
2020: (D) 374,583 | 556,846 (R)
Nevada (6)
Projected: (D) 649,320 | 632,829 (R)
2020: (D) 703,486 | 669,890 (R)
New Hampshire (4)
Projected: (D) 393,454 | 364,422 (R)
2020: (D) 424,937 | 365,660 (R)
New Jersey (14)
Projected: (D) 2,424,847 | 1,744,295 (R)
2020: (D) 2,608,327 | 1,883,260 (R)
New Mexico (5)
Projected: (D) 443,885 | 370,711 (R)
2020: (D) 501,614 | 401,894 (R)
New York (29)
Projected: (D) 4,807,196 | 3,121,157 (R)
2020: (D) 5,244,006 | 3,251,230 (R)
North Carolina (15)
Projected: (D) 2,530,072 | 2,675,175 (R)
2020: (D) 2,684,292 | 2,758,775 (R)
North Dakota (3)
Projected: (D) 102,565 | 235,616 (R)
2020: (D) 114,902 | 235,595 (R)
Ohio (18)
Projected: (D) 2,545,812 | 3,045,671 (R)
2020: (D) 2,679,165 | 3,154,834 (R)
Oklahoma (7)
Projected: (D) 455,739 | 974,281 (R)
2020: (D) 503,890 | 1,020,280 (R)
Oregon (7)
Projected: (D) 1,202,616 | 907,740 (R)
2020: (D) 1,340,383 | 958,448 (R)
Pennsylvania (20)
Projected: (D) 3,190,219 | 3,247,117 (R)
2020: (D) 3,459,923 | 3,378,263 (R)
Rhode Island (4)
Projected: (D) 283,701 | 190,566 (R)
2020: (D) 307,486 | 199,922 (R)
South Carolina (9)
Projected: (D) 1,014,413 | 1,320,351 (R)
2020: (D) 1,091,541 | 1,385,103 (R)
South Dakota (3)
Projected: (D) 129,259 | 252,551 (R)
2020: (D) 150,471 | 261,043 (R)
Tennessee (11)
Projected: (D) 1,008,385 | 1,739,087 (R)
2020: (D) 1,143,711 | 1,852,475 (R)
Texas (38)
Projected: (D) 4,696,991 | 5,546,965 (R)
2020: (D) 5,259,126 | 5,890,347 (R)
Utah (6)
Projected: (D) 446,242 | 802,245 (R)
2020: (D) 560,282 | 865,140 (R)
Vermont (3)
Projected: (D) 214,247 | 105,317 (R)
2020: (D) 242,820 | 112,704 (R)
Virginia (13)
Projected: (D) 2,269,355 | 1,934,884 (R)
2020: (D) 2,413,568 | 1,962,430 (R)
Washington (12)
Projected: (D) 2,159,355 | 1,486,976 (R)
2020: (D) 2,369,612 | 1,584,651 (R)
West Virginia (5)
Projected: (D) 198,794 | 533,039 (R)
2020: (D) 235,984 | 545,382 (R)
Wisconsin (10)
Projected: (D) 1,527,282 | 1,592,258 (R)
2020: (D) 1,630,866 | 1,610,184 (R)
Wyoming (3)
Projected: (D) 63,020 | 189,285 (R)
2020: (D) 73,491 | 193,559 (R)
Dictrict of Colombia (3)
Projected: (D) 313,000 | 17,884 (R)
2020: (D) 317,323 | 18,586 (R)
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2024 Projection Interactive Electoral Map Electoral Voting Data by State Candidate Favorability Index American Presidents


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