2024 Presidential Election
A by-the-numbers approach determining the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
'What matters is this: Biden is going to run and he's going to win. The exact date he 'officially' announces is utterly meaningless' - Rep.Brendan Boyle (D-PA)
With these results online since 12/22/2020, the AmericanPresidents.net experimental 2024 forecast predicts, to the final popular vote being cast, the results of the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election. The projection does not take into account who the actual Republican and Democrat candidates will be, instead attempting to define the winner based purely on voter patterns by state recorded over the last three Presidential Election cycles (2012, 2016, 2020).
According to the resulting data, key races to watch will be the usual suspects in Arizona (R, +43,466), Maine (D, +16,216), Michigan (R, +27,268), Nevada (D, +16,491), New Hampshire (D, +29,032), North Carolina (R, +145,103), Pennsylvania (R, +56,898), and Wisconsin (R, +64,976) with a combined difference of 541,292 votes making up 95 total Electoral Votes (EVs). The Republicans appear to take back Arizona and Georgia while Biden's 2020 victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will all be reversed. The 'Purple Prizes' in the 2024 election will be Georgia (16ev), Michigan (15ev), North Carolina (16ev), and Pennsylvania (19ev) accounting for a total of 66 EVs - we forecast all of these states going to the Republican candidate.
Our results forecast a Republican White House victory with EV numbers close to that of the Democrats in November 2020. Democrats will, once again, claim the Popular Vote though by a smaller margin than in 2020. The Republicans will claim more overall states and, thusly, more of the EV total.
By our count, Swing States will continue to provide the needed 'swing' to the victor with close races across the lot - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Of note is that these results are strictly a by-the-numbers approach without knowing who the candidates for either side will be or what voter psychology will be heading into the 2024 election season.
Republican Margin of Victory in Key States (Note that these are all previous Trump (2016) AND Biden (2020) victories):
Arizona = +43,466 votes
Georgia = +114,652 votes
Michigan = +154,188 votes
Pennsylvania = +56,898 votes
Wisconsin = +20,682 votes
--- TOTAL: +307,260 ---
Takeaways: The Republicans claim key states narrowingly lost by Trump in 2020 with slightly wider margins of victory, particularly in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Using these totals, the race will be called by a margin of just 307,260 votes leaning Republican by a slightly wider margin of victory than what the Biden Campaign saw in 2020 (with a margin of 277,661 votes).
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