2024 Presidential Election

A by-the-numbers approach determining the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

'What matters is this: Biden is going to run and he's going to win. The exact date he 'officially' announces is utterly meaningless' - Rep.Brendan Boyle (D-PA)

'DNC has already announced that it will not allow any debates in 2024 primary. Biden is not to be challenged.' - via Twitter, Apr.2023

The AmericanPresidents.net experimental 2024 forecast predicts, to the final popular vote being cast, the results of the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election. The projection does not take into account who the actual Republican and Democrat candidates will be, instead attempting to define the winner based purely on voter patterns by state recorded over the last three Presidential Election cycles (2012, 2016, 2020).

Joe Biden's Current Approval Rating via the True Approval Rating Index (T.A.R.i.) (Opens new site / window)

According to the resulting data, key races to watch will be in Arizona (R, +43,466), Maine (D, +16,216), Michigan (R, +27,268), Minnesota (D, +141,842), Nevada (D, +16,491), New Hampshire (D, +29,032), North Carolina (R, +145,103), Pennsylvania (R, +56,898), and Wisconsin (R, +64,976) with a combined difference of 541,292 votes making up 95 total Electoral Votes (EVs). No major upsets are expected though Republicans will be slightly threatening to flip long-time Democrat bastions such as Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine. The Republicans appear to take back Arizona and Georgia while Biden's 2020 victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will all be reversed. The 'Purple Prizes' in the 2024 election will be Georgia (16ev), Michigan (15ev), North Carolina (16ev), and Pennsylvania (19ev) accounting for a total of 66 EVs - we forecast all of these states going to the Republican candidate.

Our results forecast a Republican White House victory with EV numbers close to that of the Democrats in November 2020. Democrats will, once again, claim the Popular Vote but by a far smaller margin than in 2020. The Republicans will claim more overall states and, thusly, more of the EV total.

By our count, Swing States will continue to provide the needed 'swing' to the victor with close races across the lot - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Remember, these results are strictly a by-the-numbers approach without knowing who the candidates for either side will be or what the voter psychology will be heading into the 2024 election season.

Republican Margin of Victory in Key States (Note that these are all previous Trump (2016) AND Biden (2020) victories):
Arizona = +43,466 votes
Georgia = +114,652 votes
Michigan = +154,188 votes
Pennsylvania = +56,898 votes
Wisconsin = +20,682 votes
--- TOTAL: +307,260 ---

Takeaways: The Republicans claim key states lost narrowingly lost by Trump in 2020 and with slightly wider margins of victory, particularly in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. A razor-thin result is expected in Michigan (with a rather surprising Republican victory). Using these totals, the race will be called by a margin of just 307,260 votes leaning Republican - a slightly wider margin of victory than Biden saw in 2020 (277,661 votes). Notable (relatively) close races (all three going to the Democrats) include Maine (+16,216 votes), Minnesota (141,842 votes), and New Hampshire (29,032 votes) perhaps revealing ground being gained by Republicans in these reliably Blue states - but this remains to be seen.

AVAILABLE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES (538 TOTAL):

1) Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not follow the 'winner-take-all' rule regarding their Electoral Votes per candidate. This allows for a more proportional division of the claimed Electoral Votes.
2) Projections below are based on trends observed in each state from the 2008, 2016, and 2020 presidential election cycles.
3) It is assumed that, for the 2024 election, COVID-19 no longer casts a shadow on the election period and this accounts for lower turnout in most states (less reliance on mail-in voting, absentee ballots, early voting, etc.).
4) Electoral vote values below have been adjusted to coincide with the 2020 census results: Democrats lose in California (-1), New York (-1), Illinois (-1), Michigan (-1), and Pennsylvania (-1) but gain in Colorado (+1) and Oregon (+1). Republicans gain in Texas (+2), Florida (+1), and Montana (+1) but lose in Ohio (-1) and West Virginia (-1). Swing State North Carolina gains (+1).

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