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Interactive Electoral Map Trends by State Favorability Index 2024 Projection 2020 Election 2016 Election

Candidate Favorability Index


A By-the-Numbers Approach




The Favorability Index - or 'FavIndx' - applies a numerical value (by way of our in-house formula) to a presidential candidate. The resulting value is based in the total number of states won and the overall victory spread in a given state - this becoming the candidate's 'favorability' rating showing just how popular (or unpopular) he/she was at the moment of victory/defeat. Generally, the larger the state victories and wider the victory spread, the greater the favorability score. However, in some races - particularly close ones - the losing candidate may score better than the winning candidate.

Based on our formula, two of the best performing candidates are Richard Nixon (1972) and Ronald Reagon (1984) while two of the worst performers are their counterparts, George McGovern (1972) and Walter Mondale (1984). The highest possible FavIndx rating achieved is by Republican Richard Nixon in the 1972 campaign with a score of 1355.5. When averaged out, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush (865.95 and 306.2, respectively) are the top-performing Republican candidates while Bill Clinton and Barack Obama (289.45 and 289.2, respectively) are the two top-performing Democratic candidates. Both Reagan, Bush, and Clinton (Bill) all scored better in their second outings (1078.1, 342.5, and 298.4, respectively) whereas Obama scored better in his first (322.8) when compared to his second (255.6).

For the 2020 election between incumpbent Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden, Republican candidate Donald Trump (247.8) slipped in the FavIndx from his 2016 showing (347.3) against Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton (166.1) - but still managed to edge out Democratic challenger (and eventual winner) Joe Biden (242.1).
1
Portrait of U.S. President Richard Nixon Richard Nixon
(1972)

Republican (W)
1355.5
2
Portrait of U.S. President Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan
(1984)

Republican (W)
1078.1
3
Portrait of U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson Lyndon Johnson
(1964)

Democrat (W)
990.3
4
Portrait of U.S. President Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan
(1980)

Republican (W)
653.8
5
Portrait of U.S. President George H.W. Bush George H.W. Bush
(1988)

Republican (W)
454.0
6
Portrait of U.S. President Donald Trump Donald Trump
(2016)

Republican (W)
347.3
7
Portrait of U.S. President George W. Bush George W. Bush
(2004)

Republican (W)
342.5
8
Portrait of U.S. President Barack Obama Barack Obama
(2008)

Democrat (W)
322.8
9
Portrait of U.S. President Bill Clinton Bill Clinton
(1996)

Democrat (W)
298.4
10
Portrait of U.S. President Bill Clinton Bill Clinton
(1992)

Democrat (W)
280.5
11
Portrait of U.S. President George W. Bush George W. Bush
(2000)

Republican (W)
269.9
12
Portrait of U.S. President Barack Obama Barack Obama
(2012)

Democrat (W)
255.6
13
Portrait of U.S. President Donald Trump Donald Trump
(2020)

Republican (L)
247.8
14
Portrait of U.S. President Joe Biden Joe Biden
(2020)

Democrat (W)
242.1
15
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney Mitt Romney
(2012)

Republican (L)
229.8
16
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton
(2016)

Democrat (L)
166.1
17
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate John McCain John McCain
(2008)

Republican (L)
149.4
18
Portrait of U.S. President Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter
(1976)

Democrat (W)
136.0
19
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Al Gore Al Gore
(2000)

Democrat (L)
129.0
20
Portrait of U.S. President Richard Nixon Richard Nixon
(1960)

Republican (L)
128.5
21
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Gerald Ford Gerald Ford
(1976)

Republican (L)
123.5
22
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate John Kerry John Kerry
(2004)

Democrat (L)
104.4
23
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Bob Dole Bob Dole
(1996)

Republican (L)
102.5
24
Portrait of U.S. President John F. Kennedy John F. Kennedy
(1960)

Democrat (W)
92.6
25
Portrait of U.S. President George H.W. Bush George H.W. Bush
(1992)

Republican (L)
91.2
26
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Hubert Humphrey Hubert Humphrey
(1968)

Democrat (L)
87.9
27
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Michael Dukakis Michael Dukakis
(1988)

Democrat (L)
29.4
28
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Barry Goldwater Barry Goldwater
(1964)

Republican (L)
18.1
29
Portrait of U.S. President Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter
(1980)

Democrat (L)
15.4
30
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Walter Mondale Walter Mondale
(1984)

Democrat (L)
2.8
31
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate George McGovern George McGovern
(1972)

Democrat (L)
2.6
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2024 Projection Interactive Electoral Map Electoral Voting Data by State Candidate Favorability Index American Presidents


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