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2024 Election Projection Interactive Electoral Map Voting Trends by State Favorability Index

Candidate Favorability Index


A By-the-Numbers Approach




The Favorability Index - or 'FavIndx' - applies a numerical value (by way of our in-house formula) to a presidential candidate. The resulting value is based in the total number of states won and the overall victory spread in a given state - this becoming the candidate's 'favorability' rating showing just how popular (or unpopular) he/she was at the moment of victory/defeat. Generally, the larger the state victories and wider the victory spread, the greater the favorability score. However, in some races - particularly close ones - the losing candidate may score better than the winning candidate.

Based on our formula, two of the best performing candidates are Richard Nixon (1972) and Ronald Reagon (1984) while two of the worst performers are their counterparts, George McGovern (1972) and Walter Mondale (1984). The highest possible FavIndx rating achieved is by Republican Richard Nixon in the 1972 campaign with a score of 1355.5. When averaged out, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush (865.95 and 306.2, respectively) are the top-performing Republican candidates while Bill Clinton and Barack Obama (289.4 and 289.2, respectively) are the two top-performing Democratic candidates. Reagan, Bush, and Clinton (Bill) all scored better in their second outings (1078.1, 342.5, and 298.4, respectively) whereas Obama scored better in his first (322.8) when compared to his second (255.6). One rarity is Nixon appearing three times on this list and, each time, increasing his favorability score with each outing before finalyl securing the top spot. Of particular note is the top five candidates being leaders during the Cold War period (1947-1991). Favorability scores have become consistently close since the 1988 election.

For the 2020 election between incumbent Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden, Republican candidate Donald Trump (247.8) slipped in the FavIndx from his 2016 showing (347.3) against Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton (166.1) - but still managed to edge out Democratic challenger (and eventual winner) Joe Biden (242.1). Trump's 2020 score makes him the higest ranking loser of the list while Biden registers as the lowest ranking winner - reflecting a less-than-excited electorate for the 2020 Presidential Election cycle. Our 2024 election projection (based on historical data) sees the Republican candidate (unannounced as of this publishing) coming out on top with a score of 263.2 versus the losing Democrat's 180.4 score (this candidate also unannounced). This indicates a Republican candidate that will compare slightly less favorably to 1968's Nixon and a Democratic candidate slightly better favored than 2016's Hillary Clinton.
REPUBLICAN Candidate
Overall Average

366.2
Out of 8 Election Victories
Avg Candidate Winning Score: 596.0
DEMOCRAT Candidate
Overall Average

197.2
Out of 8 Election Victories
Avg Candidate Winning Score: 327.3
1
Portrait of U.S. President Richard Nixon Richard Nixon
(1972)

Republican (W)
1355.5
2
Portrait of U.S. President Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan
(1984)

Republican (W)
1078.1
3
Portrait of U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson Lyndon Johnson
(1964)

Democrat (W)
990.3
4
Portrait of U.S. President Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan
(1980)

Republican (W)
653.8
5
Portrait of U.S. President George H.W. Bush George H.W. Bush
(1988)

Republican (W)
454.0
6
Portrait of U.S. President Donald Trump Donald Trump
(2016)

Republican (W)
347.3
7
Portrait of U.S. President George W. Bush George W. Bush
(2004)

Republican (W)
342.5
8
Portrait of U.S. President Barack Obama Barack Obama
(2008)

Democrat (W)
322.8
9
Portrait of U.S. President Bill Clinton Bill Clinton
(1996)

Democrat (W)
298.4
10
Portrait of U.S. President Bill Clinton Bill Clinton
(1992)

Democrat (W)
280.5
11
Portrait of U.S. President George W. Bush George W. Bush
(2000)

Republican (W)
269.9
12
Portrait of U.S. President Richard M. Nixon Richard Nixon
(1968)

Republican (W)
267.2
13
Portrait of U.S. President Barack Obama Barack Obama
(2012)

Democrat (W)
255.6
14
Portrait of U.S. President Donald Trump Donald Trump
(2020)

Republican (L)
247.8
15
Portrait of U.S. President Joe Biden Joe Biden
(2020)

Democrat (W)
242.1
16
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney Mitt Romney
(2012)

Republican (L)
229.8
17
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton
(2016)

Democrat (L)
166.1
18
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate John McCain John McCain
(2008)

Republican (L)
149.4
19
Portrait of U.S. President Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter
(1976)

Democrat (W)
136.0
20
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Al Gore Al Gore
(2000)

Democrat (L)
129.0
21
Portrait of U.S. President Richard Nixon Richard Nixon
(1960)

Republican (L)
128.5
22
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Gerald Ford Gerald Ford
(1976)

Republican (L)
123.5
23
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate John Kerry John Kerry
(2004)

Democrat (L)
104.4
24
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Bob Dole Bob Dole
(1996)

Republican (L)
102.5
25
Portrait of U.S. President John F. Kennedy John F. Kennedy
(1960)

Democrat (W)
92.6
26
Portrait of U.S. President George H.W. Bush George H.W. Bush
(1992)

Republican (L)
91.2
27
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Hubert Humphrey Hubert Humphrey
(1968)

Democrat (L)
87.9
28
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Michael Dukakis Michael Dukakis
(1988)

Democrat (L)
29.4
29
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Barry Goldwater Barry Goldwater
(1964)

Republican (L)
18.1
30
Portrait of U.S. President Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter
(1980)

Democrat (L)
15.4
31
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate Walter Mondale Walter Mondale
(1984)

Democrat (L)
2.8
32
Portrait of U.S. Presidential Candidate George McGovern George McGovern
(1972)

Democrat (L)
2.6
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2024 Projection Interactive Electoral Map Electoral Voting Data by State Candidate Favorability Index 2024 Democratic Candidate Field 2024 Republican Candidate Field Recession Tracker


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